The Role of Exchange Rates in Stock Prices

Oct 13, 2025 by windailys.com 66 views

The Effect of Systematic Risk, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates on the Stock Prices of Banking Companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

Introduction

In the world of investment, understanding the factors that affect stock prices is crucial, especially for investors who focus on the banking sector. The banking sector is a significant component of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), and the performance of banking companies can have a substantial impact on the overall economy. This article will discuss the analysis of the effect of systematic risk, exchange rates, and interest rates on the stock prices of banking companies listed on the IDX. With the background of the uncertainty of the global economy, coupled with fluctuations in exchange rates and interest rates that have a significant effect, this study aims to provide in-depth insights for stakeholders in the financial sector.

Research Methodology

This study uses a descriptive analysis approach and multiple linear regression to evaluate the effect of these variables. Systematic risk variables are measured using beta (β), which are calculated based on market returns and the return of individuals from each share during a certain period. In addition, the exchange rate is associated with the company's gross profit, while interest rates are related to liabilities. Hypothesis testing is carried out using a simultaneous statistical test (F-F test) and partial test (T-test) with a significance level (α) of 5%. Data analysis is processed using SPSS software for Windows, which allows researchers to get a more accurate picture of the relationship between these variables.

Research Result

With the results obtained, this study shows that the three variables - systematic risk, exchange rates, and interest rates - simultaneously have a significant influence on the share price of banking companies on the IDX. However, the results of partial tests show that only the exchange rate variable has a significant positive influence on stock prices. Meanwhile, systematic risk variables and interest rates do not show significant effects. Based on the coefficient of determination (R²), around 65.2% of the factors affecting stock prices can be explained by systematic risks, exchange rates, and interest rates, while the remaining 34.8% are influenced by other factors that are not tested in this study. This study also found no strong correlation between the variables analyzed.

Analysis and Explanation

The effect of positive exchange rates on stock prices can be explained through a direct relationship between banking company performance and currency fluctuations. When the exchange rate strengthens, companies with international exposures will tend to get better profits, increase investor confidence and, in turn, stock prices. Conversely, systematic risks that do not show significant effects may be caused by market risk characteristics that have been anticipated by investors and are reflected in the stock price itself. Interest rates also have an important role in investment decision making. Although it does not show a significant effect in the context of this research, an understanding of the potential impact of interest rates on loan costs and bank profitability remains crucial in in-depth analysis.

The Role of Exchange Rates in Stock Prices

Exchange rates play a crucial role in the performance of banking companies. A strong exchange rate can lead to increased profits for companies with international exposures, which in turn can lead to an increase in stock prices. This is because a strong exchange rate makes it cheaper for companies to import goods and services, which can lead to increased profitability. Conversely, a weak exchange rate can lead to decreased profits for companies with international exposures, which can lead to a decrease in stock prices.

The Impact of Systematic Risk on Stock Prices

Systematic risk refers to the risk that cannot be diversified away and is inherent in the market. In the context of this study, systematic risk is measured using beta (β). However, the results of this study show that systematic risk does not have a significant effect on stock prices. This may be because market risk characteristics have been anticipated by investors and are reflected in the stock price itself.

The Role of Interest Rates in Stock Prices

Interest rates also play a crucial role in the performance of banking companies. Interest rates can affect the cost of borrowing for companies, which can in turn affect their profitability. However, the results of this study show that interest rates do not have a significant effect on stock prices. This may be because the impact of interest rates on loan costs and bank profitability is not significant in the context of this study.

Conclusion

This study succeeded in showing a significant effect of the exchange rate on the share price of banking companies listed on the IDX, while systematic risks and interest rates do not show significant effects. These findings provide valuable guidelines for investors in making investment decisions in the banking sector. Taking into account these factors, investors can improve their investment strategies, as well as adapt their approaches in accordance with changing economic conditions. In the future, further research can be done to explore other factors that can affect stock prices in this sector.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations can be made:

Investors should take into account the exchange rate when making investment decisions in the banking sector.
Investors should also consider the impact of systematic risk on stock prices, although the results of this study show that it does not have a significant effect.
Further research should be conducted to explore other factors that can affect stock prices in the banking sector.
Policymakers should consider the impact of exchange rates on the performance of banking companies and take steps to mitigate any negative effects.

Limitations of the Study

This study has several limitations that should be noted. Firstly, the study only considers the effect of exchange rates, systematic risk, and interest rates on stock prices, and does not consider other factors that may also affect stock prices. Secondly, the study only considers the banking sector and does not consider other sectors that may also be affected by these factors. Finally, the study only considers the IDX and does not consider other stock exchanges that may also be affected by these factors.

Future Research Directions

Future research should be conducted to explore other factors that can affect stock prices in the banking sector. Some potential areas of research include:

The impact of monetary policy on stock prices in the banking sector.
The impact of fiscal policy on stock prices in the banking sector.
The impact of economic indicators on stock prices in the banking sector.
The impact of global events on stock prices in the banking sector.

By exploring these areas of research, policymakers and investors can gain a better understanding of the factors that affect stock prices in the banking sector and make more informed decisions.
Q&A: The Effect of Systematic Risk, Exchange Rates, and Interest Rates on Stock Prices in Banking Companies

Introduction

In our previous article, we discussed the analysis of the effect of systematic risk, exchange rates, and interest rates on the stock prices of banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). In this article, we will answer some of the most frequently asked questions related to this topic.

Q: What is systematic risk, and how does it affect stock prices?

A: Systematic risk refers to the risk that cannot be diversified away and is inherent in the market. In the context of this study, systematic risk is measured using beta (β). However, the results of this study show that systematic risk does not have a significant effect on stock prices. This may be because market risk characteristics have been anticipated by investors and are reflected in the stock price itself.

Q: How does the exchange rate affect stock prices in the banking sector?

A: Exchange rates play a crucial role in the performance of banking companies. A strong exchange rate can lead to increased profits for companies with international exposures, which in turn can lead to an increase in stock prices. Conversely, a weak exchange rate can lead to decreased profits for companies with international exposures, which can lead to a decrease in stock prices.

Q: What is the impact of interest rates on stock prices in the banking sector?

A: Interest rates can affect the cost of borrowing for companies, which can in turn affect their profitability. However, the results of this study show that interest rates do not have a significant effect on stock prices. This may be because the impact of interest rates on loan costs and bank profitability is not significant in the context of this study.

Q: What are the implications of this study for investors and policymakers?

A: The findings of this study have several implications for investors and policymakers. Firstly, investors should take into account the exchange rate when making investment decisions in the banking sector. Secondly, investors should also consider the impact of systematic risk on stock prices, although the results of this study show that it does not have a significant effect. Finally, policymakers should consider the impact of exchange rates on the performance of banking companies and take steps to mitigate any negative effects.

Q: What are the limitations of this study?

A: This study has several limitations that should be noted. Firstly, the study only considers the effect of exchange rates, systematic risk, and interest rates on stock prices, and does not consider other factors that may also affect stock prices. Secondly, the study only considers the banking sector and does not consider other sectors that may also be affected by these factors. Finally, the study only considers the IDX and does not consider other stock exchanges that may also be affected by these factors.

Q: What are the future research directions for this topic?

A: Future research should be conducted to explore other factors that can affect stock prices in the banking sector. Some potential areas of research include:

The impact of monetary policy on stock prices in the banking sector.
The impact of fiscal policy on stock prices in the banking sector.
The impact of economic indicators on stock prices in the banking sector.
The impact of global events on stock prices in the banking sector.

Q: How can investors and policymakers use the findings of this study to make more informed decisions?

A: The findings of this study can be used by investors and policymakers to make more informed decisions in several ways. Firstly, investors can use the findings of this study to adjust their investment strategies to take into account the impact of exchange rates on stock prices. Secondly, policymakers can use the findings of this study to develop policies that mitigate the negative effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the banking sector.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the findings of this study have several implications for investors and policymakers. By understanding the effect of systematic risk, exchange rates, and interest rates on stock prices in the banking sector, investors and policymakers can make more informed decisions and develop policies that promote the stability and growth of the banking sector.