The Importance of Demographic Factors in Economic Growth

Oct 13, 2025 by windailys.com 36 views

The Influence of Demographic Bonuses, Total Fertility Rates, and Job Opportunities on GRDP Based on Applicable Prices in North Sumatra Province

Introduction

The role of residents in the development of a nation cannot be overstated. Various population issues pose a significant challenge in many countries, including Indonesia. The imbalance between demographic and productivity composition can result in low economic growth, which can be seen from the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) based on applicable prices in each region. This demographic problem has a long-term impact on the economy. This study aims to identify the effect of demographic bonuses, marked by a decrease in the ratio of dependency and improvement of the labor force, as well as the effect of total fertility (birth rate) and employment opportunities on GRDP in North Sumatra Province.

The Importance of Demographic Factors in Economic Growth

Demographic factors play a crucial role in determining the economic growth of a region. The dependency ratio, which is the ratio of the population that is dependent on the working-age population, has a significant impact on the economy. A decrease in the dependency ratio can lead to an increase in the labor force, which can contribute to economic growth. However, if the dependency ratio decreases but the labor force does not increase, it can lead to a decrease in the workforce, which can negatively impact the economy.

The Impact of Total Fertility Rate on Economic Growth

The total fertility rate (TFR), which is the average number of children born per woman, has a significant impact on the economy. A high TFR can lead to an increase in the population, which can put pressure on the economy. If the population increases but the employment opportunities do not increase, it can lead to a decrease in the quality of human resources and economic productivity. On the other hand, a low TFR can lead to a decrease in the population, which can negatively impact the economy.

The Role of Job Opportunities in Economic Growth

Job opportunities play a crucial role in determining the economic growth of a region. An increase in job opportunities can lead to an increase in the labor force, which can contribute to economic growth. However, if the job opportunities do not increase, it can lead to a decrease in the labor force, which can negatively impact the economy.

Research Methodology

In this study, data analysis was carried out through multiple linear regression using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. This study also applied various classic assumption tests, including normality tests, autocorrelation, multicolinerality, and heteroscedasticity. In addition, the model suitability test is carried out simultaneously (using F-Statistics) and partial (using T-Statistics) and R² analysis to determine how well the model explains the variation in the data.

Research Results

The results showed that:

Dependency Ratio: This variable has a positive but not significant influence on GRDP. This shows that although the dependency ratio decreases, its impact on economic growth in this province has not been seen significantly. This can happen because of other factors that are more dominant affecting GRDP.
Total Birth Rate (Total Fertility Rate): Conversely, the total number of births has a negative and significant effect on GRDP. The increase in birth rates can increase the population, but if it is not balanced with adequate employment and education opportunities, this can actually reduce the quality of human resources and economic productivity.
Labor Force and Job Opportunities: Both of these variables have a positive and significant influence on GRDP. Increasing the number of workforce, supported by adequate employment opportunities, contributes to economic growth. This shows the importance of creating quality jobs so that demographic bonuses can be utilized optimally.

Conclusion

Overall, this study shows that despite the potential of the demographic bonus shown by the increase in the workforce, not all demographic factors contribute positively to the economy. Increasing the birth rate is a challenge that needs to be faced so as not to be a burden on the economy. To optimize the positive effects of demographic bonuses, policies are needed that focus on increasing education, creation of employment opportunities, and good birth management. The government and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province need to formulate a comprehensive strategy to optimize demographic potential and increase GRDP on a sustainable manner.

Recommendations

Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are made:

Increase Education: The government and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province need to increase education opportunities to improve the quality of human resources.
Create Employment Opportunities: The government and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province need to create employment opportunities to increase the labor force and contribute to economic growth.
Good Birth Management: The government and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province need to implement good birth management policies to balance the population growth with employment and education opportunities.
Comprehensive Strategy: The government and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province need to formulate a comprehensive strategy to optimize demographic potential and increase GRDP on a sustainable manner.

By implementing these recommendations, the government and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province can optimize the positive effects of demographic bonuses and contribute to economic growth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on the Influence of Demographic Bonuses, Total Fertility Rates, and Job Opportunities on GRDP in North Sumatra Province

Q: What is a demographic bonus?

A: A demographic bonus refers to a situation where the population of a region has a high proportion of working-age individuals, which can lead to an increase in the labor force and contribute to economic growth.

Q: How does the dependency ratio affect GRDP?

A: The dependency ratio has a positive but not significant influence on GRDP. This means that although the dependency ratio decreases, its impact on economic growth in this province has not been seen significantly.

Q: What is the impact of total fertility rate on GRDP?

A: The total fertility rate has a negative and significant effect on GRDP. This means that an increase in birth rates can increase the population, but if it is not balanced with adequate employment and education opportunities, it can actually reduce the quality of human resources and economic productivity.

Q: How does job opportunities affect GRDP?

A: Job opportunities have a positive and significant influence on GRDP. This means that increasing the number of workforce, supported by adequate employment opportunities, contributes to economic growth.

Q: What are the implications of the study's findings?

A: The study's findings imply that despite the potential of the demographic bonus shown by the increase in the workforce, not all demographic factors contribute positively to the economy. Increasing the birth rate is a challenge that needs to be faced so as not to be a burden on the economy.

Q: What are the recommendations of the study?

A: The study recommends that the government and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province need to increase education opportunities to improve the quality of human resources, create employment opportunities to increase the labor force and contribute to economic growth, implement good birth management policies to balance the population growth with employment and education opportunities, and formulate a comprehensive strategy to optimize demographic potential and increase GRDP on a sustainable manner.

Q: Why is it important to optimize demographic potential?

A: Optimizing demographic potential is important because it can contribute to economic growth and improve the quality of life of the population. By increasing the labor force and improving the quality of human resources, a region can become more competitive and attractive to investors, which can lead to economic growth and development.

Q: What are the challenges of implementing the study's recommendations?

A: The challenges of implementing the study's recommendations include the need for significant investment in education and employment opportunities, the need for effective birth management policies, and the need for a comprehensive strategy to optimize demographic potential. Additionally, there may be resistance from certain groups or individuals who may be opposed to changes in the current demographic situation.

Q: How can the study's findings be applied in practice?

A: The study's findings can be applied in practice by policymakers and stakeholders in North Sumatra Province who are responsible for making decisions about education, employment, and birth management policies. By taking into account the demographic factors that affect GRDP, policymakers can make informed decisions that optimize demographic potential and contribute to economic growth and development.

Q: What are the limitations of the study?

A: The limitations of the study include the use of secondary data, which may not be comprehensive or up-to-date, and the use of a single province as the study area, which may not be representative of other provinces in Indonesia. Additionally, the study's findings may not be generalizable to other countries or regions with different demographic characteristics.